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Project 3: Integrated approach for Development of an Antigen Detection Method Based on Nano- and Microparticles,
Disease Spreading Models, and Antibiotic Resistance Evolution Models


            Emerging infectious disease problems always have a great impact on quality of lives, economics and security of Thailand. Once an emerging infectious disease occurs in other countries, the important question for health care agencies and related authorities is whether the disease will eventually reach our country, how risky the country is and in which period the first imported case should be found in Thailand. The answers to these questions will facilitate related health authorities in tailoring strategic plans for confronting the disease properly. Moreover, another interesting question is which preventive and control measures should be employed to confine the outbreak once an imported case is identified. Realizing these problems, we have constructed mathematical models for estimating importation risk of the infectious case to enter Thailand. For example, the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak in West Africa is the largest and longest Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in the history, and the virus has escaped across countries and continents via air travel in this outbreak. A stochastic dynamic model was performed to estimate the risk of EVD importation into the top 20 final destination countries of air travelers departing from within the three epidemic countries (Figure 3.1) [1].

Figure 3.1 The world map illustrating the EVD importation probability into the top 20 final destination countries (figure was adapted from [1]).

            Drug resistance is defined as the reduction in effectiveness of a drug in curing a disease. The evolution and spread of drug resistance is an urgent problem in the treatment of disease, from bacterial infections to cancer. The worldwide rate of drug resistance in many diseases is increasing, and the resulting failures of treatment cause hundreds of thousands of deaths annually. Malaria is one of the most serious life-threatening diseases affecting billions of people and causing hundreds of millions of clinical cases every year. Many factors are likely to contribute to the rapid evolution of antimalarial drug resistance. One is the selection of resistant mutants by low drug concentrations, which occurs when a drug treatment course is not strictly implemented. Low drug concentrations can kill a drug-sensitive strain but cannot kill some mutants, thus the low drug concentrations promote resistant mutants to pass to the next generation. Researchers also believe that the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in drug concentrations can facilitate the drug-resistant evolution. Interestingly the drug concentration gradient can occur in the scales ranging from human organs to the global population scale. Therefore, to manipulate and slow the evolution of antimalarial resistance, we need to understand how the drug resistance occurs in various scales ranging from genes to parasite and human population. At the cellular level, we have constructed a Monte Carlo model to simulate number of infected red blood cells in human (Figure 3.2). Our simulation results agree well with experimental data


Figure 3.2 Normalized parasite clearance curves showing the density of infected red blood cells versus time.
(Figure was adapted from ref.[2])



[1] Anuwat Wiratsudakul, Wannapong Triampo,Yongjua Laosiritaworn, Charin Modchang. A one-year effective reproduction numberof the 2014e2015 Ebola outbreaks in thewidespread West African countries andquantitative evaluation of air travelrestriction measure. Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
14 (2016) 481-488.
[2] Suwat Romphosri, Thanat Chookajorn, Wannapong Triampo, Yongwimon Lenbury,Charin Modchang. Intra-host dynamics of malaria parasites under drugtreatment: A Monte Carlo study. ANSCSE20 Kasetsart University, Bangkok, Thailand, July 27-29, 2016.


Principle investigator: Associate Professor Dr. Wannapong Triampo 1)
Collaborators: Asst. Prof. Dr. Charin Modchang 1), Asst. Prof. Dr. Narin Nuttavut 1), Asst. Prof. Dr. DarapondTriampo2), Dr. Stefan Schreier1)
Affiliated Institutions: 1) Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University, 2) Department of Chemistry, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University